VW Faces €1.3B Hit from US Tariffs; Trump Proposes Tariff-Funded Rebates

Economics News and Analysis
Total 1312 words · 6 mins read

Key Takeaways

  • VW: US tariffs cost €1.3B, decreasing profit margin by 30% due to EV ramp-up.
  • Trump proposes tariff-funded rebates for Americans with a certain income level, using record $113B revenue.
  • Goldman Sachs suggests the Fed should consider a rate cut due to sluggish US growth.
  • Davis Commodities eyes tokenization, potentially unlocking $1–3 billion in settlement volume in 36 months.
  • Markets mixed amid trade uncertainty before August 1 tariff deadline set by US President Trump.

Top Stories

VW: US tariffs cost €1.3B, impacting sales and profit margin.

On July 25, 2025, VW CFO discussed the impact of US auto tariffs, noting a 30% margin decrease due to EV ramp-up, tariffs, and restructuring. U.S. tariffs cost VW over €1.3 billion, leading to a cut in sales and profit margin forecasts.

Trump proposes tariff-funded rebates for specific income levels.

President Trump proposed rebates for Americans with a certain income level, funded by tariff revenue which reached a record $113 billion in fiscal year 2025. The form of the rebate is unclear and may require Congressional approval.

Goldman Sachs: US economy solid, Fed should consider rate cut.

On July 25, 2025, Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan stated that the U.S. economy is solid but experiencing sluggish growth, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should be prepared to potentially cut interest rates at the September meeting, given the current disinflationary environment.

Davis Commodities eyes tokenization, $1-3B settlement volume potential.

Davis Commodities Limited (DTCK) is evaluating tokenization initiatives, including U.S.-based stablecoin licensing and ESG-linked commodity flows, estimating that tokenized trade could unlock $1–3 billion in settlement volume over the next 36 months.

Markets mixed amid trade uncertainty before August 1 deadline.

On July 25, 2025, markets were influenced by trade agreements and discussions, with Asian markets mostly falling and European markets opening lower, as investors awaited more trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline set by US President Donald Trump.

Finance Trends

Bitcoin falls to $115,000 amid profit-taking, whale sales.

On July 25, 2025, Bitcoin's price fell to around $115,000, attributed to profit-taking and large whale sales, with 40,000 BTC transferred to centralized exchanges in a day, eliminating $390 million in futures contracts.

Gold's autumn rally: Mining stocks, ETFs poised for new highs.

Gold's seasonal trends are expected to drive mining stocks and ETFs to new highs, with an average 5.2% increase between mid-June and late September, driven by Indian demand, and gold stocks tending to amplify gold's gains with an average 8.2% increase.

Shanghai Exchange launches new bond framework, aims to double issuance.

In 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange launched a new framework to facilitate more companies, especially private enterprises, to issue bonds and attract investors, with 53 bonds worth 37 billion yuan ($5.2 billion) already sold under this mechanism.

US Treasury yields fall ahead of Fed meeting, data flow.

On July 25, 2025, US Treasury yields traded lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining to 4.388% ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, as interest rates are expected to remain on hold.

Reports warn of US stock market risks, liquidity drain.

Reports published around July 25, 2025, discuss potential risks to the U.S. stock market, highlighting concerns about unsustainable highs due to excessive liquidity and a potential $500 billion liquidity drain impacting the market.

Gold prices fall amid trade optimism, stronger US dollar.

On July 25, 2025, gold prices fell, with spot gold prices falling over 1% to $3,334.20 per ounce, attributed to diminishing fears in global trade and a stronger US Dollar.

Long-term interest rates expected to fall next week.

For the week of July 28 - August 1, 2025, long-term interest rates are expected to fall, with the FOMC expected to hold steady on policy interest rates, and attention focused on the direction of monetary policy.

Global Economy

Capital Economics: China's overcapacity poses geopolitical threat.

Capital Economics views China's industrial overcapacity as a geopolitical threat, noting that export prices have dropped and 30% of manufacturers are losing money due to a 40% investment-driven growth model.

High-stakes week: US GDP, jobs data, Fed decision, trade talks.

The upcoming week features key economic reports and policy decisions, including US GDP, jobs, and inflation figures, as well as a Federal Reserve meeting and high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China in Stockholm.

Trump, von der Leyen discuss EU-US trade deal, 15% tariff baseline.

Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland to discuss a potential EU-US trade deal, which may set a 15% baseline tariff rate on European imports, as both sides work to avoid 30% tariffs on European imports ahead of the August 1 deadline.

BlackRock: Resilient US economy, AI investment most exciting.

BlackRock's Rick Rieder sees a resilient US economy driven by a strong service sector and moderating inflation, and is bullish on AI, automation, and data-driven business models, calling it the most exciting investment period in decades.

India, US aim for interim trade deal before August 1 deadline.

India and the U.S. are negotiating a trade deal, with talks expected to resume in August 2025, as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence in securing an interim trade deal with the US before the August 1 deadline, potentially avoiding 26% tariffs.

ECB holds rates steady, cites US tariff uncertainty.

On July 25, 2025, Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that the ECB's decision to hold interest rates this week was appropriate, as inflation reached the 2% target and uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remained high.

Fed meets amid political pressure, economic data release.

On July 26, 2025, the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, met to discuss interest rates amidst mounting political pressure, coinciding with the release of economic data including reports on gross domestic product, employment, and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.

Turkish economy overcomes challenges, enters positive cycle.

Mehmet Şimşek, Minister of Treasury and Finance, stated that the Turkish economy has overcome challenges and entered a positive cycle, emphasizing credit rating upgrades that confirm the success and resilience of the economic management.

IMF approves $625M program for Chad, supports development.

The IMF approved a $625-million program for Chad, with an immediate disbursement of $38.5 million, aimed at ensuring fiscal sustainability, supporting development, and boosting social spending.

Market Overview

Bloomberg's 'The Close' analyzes market trends, trade, and Fed.

On July 25, 2025, Bloomberg's 'The Close' covered the S&P 500's weekly gains, market trends, and expert insights, including discussions on market positioning and potential risks, as investors assessed trade deals and prepared for a Federal Reserve meeting.

Oil prices fall amid trade uncertainty, stronger dollar.

On July 25, 2025, oil prices fell, with WTI crude settling near $65 a barrel and Brent crude slipping to $68.44, attributed to a stronger dollar and fading trade deal hopes, as the market assesses uncertainties surrounding a possible US-EU trade agreement.

Asian markets fall amid trade deal anticipation on July 25.

Asian stock markets closed lower on July 25, 2025, with the Japanese Nikkei falling by 0.88% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong decreasing by 1.09%, as investors anticipated a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU.

US stock futures rise on trade deal optimism.

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Friday, driven by optimism over trade deals, with the S&P 500 rising 0.14%, Nasdaq 0.05%, and Dow Jones 0.19% ahead of the August 1 deadline for tariffs.

US stocks rise, S&P 500 at 6,388, Dow closes at 44,901.

On July 25, 2025, US benchmark equity indexes were higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising by 0.47% and 0.40% respectively, and the Dow Jones closing at 44,901 and the S&P 500 closing at 6,388, fueled by expectations of a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

Oil prices hit three-week low on US, China economic news.

On July 25 and 26, 2025, oil prices fell to a three-week low, with Brent crude futures falling to $68.44 and WTI crude falling to $65.16, due to negative economic news from the US and China and signs of growing supply.

Global stock rally pauses amid US rate cut uncertainty.

Daybreak Europe on July 25, 2025, reported on the global stock rally hitting the brakes due to uncertainty over U.S. rate cuts, with European markets tilting down .10 of a percent.

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