Trump Threatens 50% EU Tariff; Dollar Slumps to 2023 Low
Key Takeaways
- Trump threatens 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 due to stalled discussions.
- US dollar slumps to lowest since 2023 amid tariff threats and fiscal deficit concerns.
- Tether focuses outside the US amid increasing stablecoin regulation considerations.
- Bessent: US could achieve 3% economic growth by 2028, aims for 3% deficit.
- Indonesia plans to issue bonds in Chinese yuan and Australian dollars in 2025.
Top Stories
Trump threatens 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1
On May 23, 2025, President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union, starting June 1, 2025. This action is due to stalled discussions.
US dollar slumps to lowest since 2023
On May 23, 2025, the US dollar slumped to its lowest level since 2023, driven by new tariff threats from President Donald Trump and concerns about a widening fiscal deficit. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.8%.
Tether focuses outside US amid stablecoin regulation
On May 23, 2025, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated in an interview in New York that Tether is focusing on markets outside the US. This is happening as the US considers regulating stablecoins.
Bessent: US could achieve 3% economic growth by 2028
On May 23, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US could potentially achieve 3% economic growth by 2028. Bessent mentioned the possibility of reaching 3% growth by this time next year during Wall Street Week.
Bessent: Tax bill provides certainty, aims for 3% deficit
On May 23, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump's proposed tax bill will provide certainty and help bring down the total debt to GDP ratio, with a goal to reach a deficit with a 3 in front of it by 2028.
Indonesia plans yuan, Australian dollar bonds in 2025
Reported on May 23, 2025, Indonesia plans to issue bonds denominated in Chinese yuan and Australian dollars for the first time in 2025. Suminto, head of the finance ministry’s debt management office, mentioned the government will strongly consider selling dimsum and kangaroo bonds this year, depending on market conditions.
Debt & Fiscal Policy
Speaker Johnson aims to get tax bill to Trump by July 4
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that Speaker Johnson aims to get tax bill to Trump by July 4. The event date is May 22, 2025.
US pauses sovereign wealth fund to prioritize debt
On May 23, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Trump administration has paused plans to create a sovereign wealth fund to prioritize paying down the national debt. This statement was made during an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin.
Deregulation plans gain momentum; US debt sees slight gains
On May 23, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that plans for deregulation were gaining momentum, leading to slight gains in US government debt. He mentioned the potential for easing bank capital rules on Treasuries and the possibility of striking several large trade deals in the coming weeks.
Bond investors demand higher compensation for long-dated US debt
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that bond investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-dated US debt due to concerns about the widening fiscal deficit. The US 10-year term premium has risen to nearly 1%, a level not seen since 2014, reflecting investor anxiety about future borrowing.
High-quality municipal bonds expected to increase after Moody's downgrade
On 2025-05-23, Barclays Plc. suggested that high-quality taxable municipal bonds are expected to increase in value after Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating due to concerns about the country’s declining fiscal outlook.
US regulators may ease SLR, potentially lowering Treasury yields
On May 23, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that US regulators may ease the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) this summer, potentially lowering Treasury yields. The change, involving the Fed, the FCC, and the FDIC, could bring yields down by tens of basis points because banks are being penalized for holding treasuries.
Trump considers removing tax-exempt status from universities
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that President Trump is considering removing the tax-exempt status from Harvard and other universities.
Trump's Trade War
Xi Jinping calls European leaders amid Trump's tariff threats
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been calling European leaders. The purpose is to maintain close economic relationships amid President Trump's tariff threats.
Trump warns of 25% tariffs on imported Samsung products
Trump: 25% tariff on Apple if iPhones not made in US
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that President Trump stated he will impose a 25% tariff on Apple if iPhones are not made in the U.S. Gene Munster commented that a 25% tariff would likely result in a 14% price increase.
Trump announces potential tariffs of 25% and 50% on Apple
Trump initiates 90-day tariff pause with China
Lane: US tariffs won't necessarily affect euro zone
On May 23, 2025, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that faster US inflation, potentially caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, would not necessarily affect the euro zone. Lane explained that floating exchange rates prevent a direct link between US and European inflation, emphasizing the ECB's control over inflation.
Tariffs add credit risk, fiscal austerity required: Cecchini
On May 23, 2025, Axonic Capital's Peter Cecchini stated that tariffs and the fiscal setup add a risk of uncertainty in credit, and fiscal austerity is required.
Consumer Credit Watch
Household borrowing vulnerabilities moderate, some stress exists: Cook
On May 23rd, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that economic vulnerabilities from overall household borrowing are moderate, though there are some signs of stress among low to moderate income borrowers and those with subprime credit scores.
Subprime auto, credit card delinquency rates near crisis levels
Published on 2025-05-23, the report notes that in 2022 and 2023, auto and credit card delinquency rates for borrowers with subprime credit scores increased substantially and are at or near the highest levels since the financial crisis.
Economic Trends
Trump prioritizes digital assets; stablecoins may create $2T demand
On May 23, 2025, it was reported that the Trump administration is prioritizing digital assets, with stablecoins potentially creating $2 trillion of demand for U.S. Treasuries and Treasury bills.
Stablecoin regulatory bill progresses through Senate, House
As of May 23, 2025, the Genius Act, a regulatory bill for stablecoins, has progressed through the Senate. A similar measure has been approved by the House Financial Services Committee but still needs to pass the House.
NJ Transit engineers' new contract increases pay to $50+/hour
On May 23, 2025, a new contract for NJ Transit engineers was announced, increasing their pay to over $50 per hour. The starting hourly wage had been about $39.78.
Senate advances stablecoin bill; amendment targets presidential profit
On May 23, 2025, Bloomberg Markets reported that the Senate is moving forward with its stablecoin bill called the Genius Act. Democrats are looking to add an amendment that would prevent the president from making money from stablecoins.
Global Economy
EU considers sanctioning Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines
On 2025-05-23, it was reported that the European Union is considering including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, linking Germany and Russia, in a fresh proposal of sanctions against Moscow. The European Commission will consult member states on banning the links that run under the Baltic Sea.
Trump criticizes UK's North Sea oil tax approach
On May 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump criticized the UK’s approach to taxing North Sea oil and gas, stating it discouraged drilling and raised energy prices. He suggested Britain should stop using windmills and incentivize modernized drilling in the North Sea.
China approves $6.9B mall acquisition by PAG-led group
On 2025-05-23, China's antitrust regulator approved a $6.9 billion acquisition of 48 shopping malls under Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co. led by PAG. Investors include Tencent Holdings Ltd., Sunshine Life Insurance Corp., and a vehicle backed by JD.com Inc.
Bulgaria on track for Euro adoption in January 2026
On 2025-05-23, it was reported that Bulgaria is on track to win EU approval to adopt the euro in January 2026, according to Slav Okov.
Market Insights
US Steel shares surge 26% on Nippon Steel partnership
On May 23, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a partnership between United States Steel Corp. and Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. Shares of US Steel surged as much as 26% following the announcement.
Diamond: Investors conditioned to bounce; high yield spreads at 350bps
Jamie Diamond commented that a generation of investors have been conditioned to a bounce and high yield spreads are around 350 basis points.
Markets price 65bps additional ECB easing in 2025
As of May 23, 2025, money markets are pricing 65 basis points of additional easing from the European Central Bank in 2025. Traders favored three quarter-point reductions at the remaining five scheduled decisions.
Buy long-dated Treasuries: Bank of America's Hartnett
On May 23, 2025, Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett advised investors to buy long-dated Treasuries, citing potential government action on debt concerns following bond vigilante warnings. Hartnett highlighted the 30-year Treasury note's yields above 5% as a favorable entry point.