Trump Extends EU Tariff Pause Until July 9; Threatens Tariffs on Apple and Samsung
Key Takeaways
- Trump and von der Leyen extended the pause on 50% tariffs until July 9, 2025.
- Trump threatens tariffs on Apple, Samsung if they don't manufacture in the US.
- WiseTech acquires E2open for $2.1 billion, marking its largest acquisition to date.
- France's Sécurité sociale faces potential 'liquidity crisis'; 2024 deficit reached €15.3B.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Chinese steel exports to drop 3% in 2025, more in 2026.
Top Stories
Trump, von der Leyen extend tariff pause until July 9
On May 26, 2025, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to extend the pause on 50% tariffs imposed by the US on the European Union until July 9, 2025, following a phone call. As a result, US and European equity-index futures climbed.
Trump threatens tariffs on Apple, Samsung
On May 25 and 26, 2025, it was reported that President Trump warned Apple Inc. that it would be subject to 25% tariffs if it does not manufacture its iPhones in the US. He also threatened to impose tariffs on Samsung to encourage smartphone manufacturers to return to the US.
WiseTech acquires E2open for $2.1 billion
On May 25, 2025, WiseTech Global Ltd. announced its largest acquisition to date, agreeing to purchase E2open Parent Holdings Inc. for $2.1 billion.
France's Sécurité sociale faces potential 'liquidity crisis'
On 2025-05-26, a report by the Cour des comptes highlighted the precarious state of the Sécurité sociale's budget, warning of a potential "crise de liquidité". The 2024 deficit reached 15.3 billion euros, and projections indicate it may increase from 22.1 billion euros in 2025 to 24.1 billion euros in 2028.
Goldman Sachs forecasts drop in Chinese steel exports
On 2025-05-26, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported that Chinese steel exports are likely to drop, forecasting a 3% moderation in 2025 and a sharper decline of a third in 2026 due to anti-dumping investigations.
Economic Trends
ECB's Simkus warns inflation may fall below 2% target
On 2025-05-26, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus expressed concern that inflation could undershoot the ECB's 2% target due to trade friction with the US and a stronger euro. He also noted that borrowing costs are near the upper end of the neutral rate range.
US inflation readings in focus amid tariff concerns
On 2025-05-25, treasury traders focused on upcoming US inflation data amid concerns that consumer prices may rise due to President Trump's tariff plans. Long-term Treasury yields increased last week after the House passed President Trump’s legislative package, but slipped on Friday due to rising tariff tensions after the president threatened a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union starting on June 1.
Trade policy uncertainty, Fed's inflation gauge discussed
On May 26, 2025, Mark Cranfield discussed the ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. It was also reported that the Federal Reserve is in a difficult situation, weighing the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty on inflation and employment.
Commodity Markets
European natural gas prices rise on Norway supply cuts
On 2025-05-26, European natural gas prices increased after unplanned capacity reductions at Norway’s Troll field further limited supply from the region's top supplier. Benchmark futures rose as much as 2.2%, extending gains for the fourth consecutive week.
Gold slips as Trump delays EU tariffs
On May 25, 2025, gold prices slipped due to reduced haven demand after President Donald Trump delayed imposing tariff measures on the European Union until July 9. Bullion traded near $3,350 an ounce, after climbing almost 5% last week.
Global commodity trends: chicken shortages, hurricane impact
On May 25, 2025, Simar Khanna highlighted key trends in global commodity markets, including chicken shortages due to bird flu in Brazil, hurricane forecasts impacting US gasoline demand, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo's growing role in the US-China trade war. Chicken demand is growing globally, but supplies are expected to tighten due to the outbreak in Brazil.
Energy Sector
Europe's solar park profits sink to record lows
On May 26, 2025, it was reported that profits at Europe’s solar parks have sunk to record lows. In Spain, the capture rate has averaged just 7% so far this month, a decrease from 43% a year ago.
Market Insights
Stoxx 600 Q1 earnings surprisingly normal: Citi
On 2025-05-26, Citigroup's Beata Manthey noted that Stoxx 600 companies delivered surprisingly normal results in Q1, with typical earnings beats, despite recessionary EPS revisions weeks prior. She also reported inflows into European equities around 30 billion since the start of the year, offsetting only 10% of previous outflows since the Ukrainian row started.
US long bond slump clouds 60/40 portfolio comeback
On 2025-05-25, it was reported that the slump in the US long bond is hindering the resurgence of the classic 60/40 investment portfolio strategy. The traditional approach has been challenged as US stocks and bonds increasingly move in tandem, rather than offsetting each other.
Japanese shares rise on hopes of softer US trade
On May 25, 2025, Japanese shares increased due to optimism regarding potentially softer trade policies from US President Donald Trump. The Topix index rose 0.6% to 2,751.91, and the Nikkei 225 was up 1% to 37,531.53, with exporters like Sony Group Corp., Hitachi Ltd., and Tokyo Electron Ltd. leading the gains.
Japan's long-term bond yields fall on risk aversion
On 2025-05-26, Japan’s 30-year and 40-year bond yields fell 7 basis points following moves in US Treasuries and risk-averse buying, pulling back from record highs before a 40-year bond auction on Wednesday.
Sector Performance
BYD leads Chinese EV stocks lower in Hong Kong
On May 26, 2025, BYD Co. led Chinese electric vehicle stocks lower in Hong Kong, as investors digested the auto giant’s sweeping price cuts of as much as 34% late last week.
Trade Developments
Trump's tariff delay weakens dollar, boosts stocks
On May 26, 2025, the US dollar's value decreased after US President Donald Trump postponed increasing tariffs on the European Union until July 9. This decision boosted other currencies linked to global trade, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling as much as 0.4%. European stock index futures also gained.
Citi: 10% tariff risk could cut EPS by 3%
On 2025-05-26, Citi's Manthey mentioned that a 10% tariff risk could reduce EPS by around three percentage points. Tech continues to be beaten up, value cyclical, but its rate is going up 20% now.
Alibaba chairman urges Asian firms to look beyond US
On May 26, 2025, Alibaba chairman Josiah urged Asian companies to look for opportunities beyond the U.S. amid trade tensions and tariffs.
More big trade deals expected within weeks
Treasury Secretary Scott Peterson stated on May 26, 2025, that more big trade deals are expected within weeks.
Corporate Actions
Banco BPM appeals regulator's delay of UniCredit bid
On May 25, 2025, Banco BPM SpA appealed against Italy’s market regulator’s delay of a proposed takeover bid by UniCredit SpA. The court appeal is scheduled for June 10.
Emerging Markets
India's shorter-tenor bonds set to outperform
On 2025-05-26, analysts predicted that India’s shorter-tenor bonds are poised to outperform, driven by expectations that the central bank's record dividend payout will further increase cash surplus in the banking system, according to Subhadip Sircar.
Analysts bullish on South Korean won amid trade hopes
On 2025-05-26, analysts made bullish calls for the South Korean won (KRW) due to expectations of easing political uncertainties and trade negotiations with the US. BofA Securities forecasts the currency may strengthen to 1,320 per dollar by year-end.
South Africa invites US delegation for investment talks
On 2025-05-26, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that South Africa has invited a US government and business delegation to explore opportunities for deepening investment and trade.
Geopolitical Risks
Ukraine bond trade losing steam
On May 25, 2025, Andras Gergely and Zijia Song discussed how the Ukraine bond trade is losing steam due to dimming hopes for a rapid peace deal.
Investment Strategies
Asset allocators favor multi-strategy hedge funds
On May 26, 2025, Ronan Cosgrave from Albourne Partners discussed multi-strategy hedge funds and pod shops on Odd Lots, noting that big asset allocators are investing billions in multi-strategy hedge funds like Millennium and Citadel. The discussion covered the differences between multi-strats and pod shops, and the importance of pay to the business model.