Swiss Re Warns of US Stagflation; Nvidia China Chip Restrictions Trigger Stock Fall
Key Takeaways
- Swiss Re warns of potential stagflation in the US due to global economic risks.
- New US restrictions on Nvidia's chip exports to China caused stocks to fall.
- Nvidia faces a $5.5B hit due to new restrictions on China semiconductor exports.
- Trump says China retracted from a "huge" Boeing deal, impacting Boeing's stock.
- The Russian ruble has increased by 38% against the US dollar in 2025.
Top Stories
Swiss Re: US faces potential stagflation
On 2025-04-15, Swiss Re's Mueller warned of downside risks to the global economy, including potential stagflation in the US and lower growth and inflation in Europe. He also anticipates a quarter-point rate cut from the ECB due to disinflationary forces.
Stocks fall on new Nvidia restrictions to China
On 2025-04-15, stocks fell following new US restrictions on Nvidia's chip exports to China, signaling ongoing trade conflicts. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.9%, with Nvidia declining in after-hours trading, and Chinese technology companies led Asian stocks lower.
Pound climbs; stock futures poised to snap rally
On 2025-04-16, the pound climbed for a seventh day, rising above $1.32, the highest since October. Stock futures are poised to snap a four-day rally, as global equity markets tumble following tariff headlines, including new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China.
Nvidia faces $5.5B hit from China restrictions
On April 15, 2025, Nvidia announced new restrictions on semiconductor exports to China will cost it $5.5 billion in exceptional charges in Q1. The US administration's export license requirement concerns the H20 chips, designed by Nvidia specifically for sale in China. The US has banned or restricted exports of sophisticated processors to China under both Biden and Trump.
Trump: China retracted Boeing deal
On April 15, 2025, Donald Trump stated China retracted from a "huge" deal with Boeing, refusing delivery of ordered planes, causing Boeing's stock to fall 1.32%. The White House stated China initiated trade negotiations and desires American goods.
Ruble up 38% against USD in 2025
On 2025-04-15, it was reported that the Russian ruble's value has increased by 38% against the US dollar since the start of 2025, making it the top-performing global currency. This is attributed to pressure on the US dollar due to President Trump's trade wars and high interest rates in Russia.
Economic Trends
US shows interest in EU tariff agreement
On 2025-04-15, Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo stated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed interest in a US-European Union agreement on tariffs.
High-sulfur fuel oil boosts refiners' margins
On 2025-04-15, it was reported that high-sulfur fuel oil is boosting refiners’ margins amid weaker demand. High-sulfur fuel oil is the strongest it’s been for the time of year against crude since 2020 in Europe and since 2022 in Singapore.
Shanghai office tower for sale at 20% loss
On 2025-04-16, ARA Asset Management Ltd. is offering to sell a Shanghai office tower for about 2.3 billion yuan ($314 million), approximately 20% lower than its 2015 purchase price.
Global Trade Turmoil
Yuan slumps amid Trump's tariff threats
On 2025-04-15, China’s yuan slumped to the lowest in over a decade against the euro as Trump's tariffs threatened trade flows. The euro received a boost from faltering investor confidence in the dollar, while the yuan declined on expectations of managed depreciation to ease the impact of US tariffs.
Trade fair executives face challenges amid disruptions
On 2025-04-15, it was reported that executives at the world’s biggest trade fair in China are facing challenges as global commerce faces disruptions, with the impact of Trump's tariffs being a significant concern.
China replaces trade representative amid US tensions
Published on 2025-04-16, China replaced its trade representative, Wang Shouwen, with Li Chenggang as vice commerce minister and trade envoy, amid ongoing trade tensions with Washington.
Market Insights
Gold hits record; Swiss franc advances
On 2025-04-15, gold hit a record high, and the Swiss franc extended its advance against the dollar due to demand for haven assets and broad weakness in the greenback.
Hong Kong stocks decline on trade war concerns
On April 16, 2025, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks declined, ending a six-day rally due to concerns about a growing US-China trade war. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 2.6%.
Stoxx 600 drops; ASML orders lower
On 2025-04-15, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index dropped as ASML Holding NV sank more than 7% due to lower-than-expected orders, citing weakness in the chip sector.
$14B US investment-grade bonds sold
On April 15, 2025, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo sold $14 billion of US investment-grade bonds. Venture Global Plaquemines Lng sold $2.5 billion in dollar-denominated senior secured notes to refinance existing debt, and the US junk-bond market has reopened. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. priced $3 billion of notes.
Tariff Impact
US importers seek warehouse space to avoid tariffs
On 2025-04-15, Bloomberg reported that US importers are seeking warehouse space to store merchandise for up to five years without paying duties, in order to sidestep Trump administration tariffs.
China controls rare earth exports amid US tariffs
On April 16, 2025, China added seven rare earth metals to its export control list in response to tariffs imposed by the US. These metals are crucial for various products, including fighter planes and smartphones, and China controls the majority of global refining capacity.
Trump's tariffs impact semiconductor industry
On April 15, 2025, Ambassador Karen Kornbluh and Ed Ludlow discussed the complexities of President Trump's tariffs on the semiconductor industry and other electronics. They highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the administration's tariff policy and its potential impact on global supply chains and investments.
Canada allows tariff-free US auto imports
On April 15, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that his government will allow automakers to import US-manufactured cars and trucks without tariffs, provided the companies continue manufacturing vehicles in Canada.
US tariffs likely to remain, impacting businesses
On 2025-04-15, the EU anticipated most US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration would remain. Published on 2025-04-16, reports indicate Trump's protectionist policies continue to significantly impact US economic policy and negatively affect European logistics hubs.
Company Financials
LVMH turnover down 3%; Pinault loses tax appeal
On 2025-04-14, LVMH announced a 3% decrease in turnover for Q1 2025, amid threats of US customs sanctions and changing consumer behavior. Separately, Kering's CEO, François-Henri Pinault, lost an appeal against a French tax assessment of 11.56 million euros for 2017-2018.