JPMorgan: 96% Chance of Fed Rate Cut; Gold Hits Record High Above $3,685
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan sees 96% chance of Fed rate cut on September 17; gold hits record high.
- Senate confirms crypto-friendly Stephen Miran to Federal Reserve Board, serving until January 31, 2026.
- Spain to boost 2025 GDP growth forecasts; IMF lowers Vietnam's growth to 6.5% due to tariffs.
- SEBI reclassifies India’s REITs as equity, prices jump 8% over two days.
- Nikkei hits 45,000 amid US tech rally and expectations of US interest rate cuts.
Top Stories
JPMorgan: 96% chance of Fed rate cut on September 17.
JPMorgan traders see a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025.
Gold hits record high above $3,685 amid Fed rate cut hopes.
On September 16, 2025, gold reached a new record high, trading above $3,685 an ounce, as investors anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut this week and a weaker US dollar.
Senate confirms crypto-friendly Stephen Miran to Federal Reserve Board.
On September 15, 2025, the U.S. Senate confirmed Stephen Miran, considered cryptocurrency-friendly, to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors with a 48-47 vote, serving until January 31, 2026.
Spain to boost 2025 GDP growth forecasts.
On September 16, 2025, Pedro Sánchez announced that the Spanish government will approve a new macroeconomic framework that will improve GDP growth forecasts for 2025.
IMF: Vietnam's growth slows to 6.5% in 2025 due to US tariffs.
On September 16, 2025, the IMF announced that Vietnam’s economic growth is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2025, down from 7.09% the previous year, due to the effects of U.S. tariffs.
SEBI reclassifies India’s REITs as equity, prices jump 8%.
On 15 September 2025, SEBI reclassified India’s five listed REITs as equity instruments, prompting price gains of up to 8% over two days.
Nikkei hits 45,000 amid US tech rally, rate cut hopes.
On September 16, 2025, the Nikkei Stock Average in the Tokyo stock market continued to rise, temporarily breaking the 45,000 yen mark for the first time, driven by gains in US tech stocks and expectations of US interest rate cuts.
Financial Analysis
India's wholesale inflation projected at 0.5% for FY26.
Union Bank of India projects India's wholesale inflation to remain at a subdued 0.5% for the remainder of FY26, supported by base effects and a favorable outlook for commodity prices and monsoons.
Inflation likely to remain higher for longer, challenges Fed target.
On September 15, 2025, Forbes contributor Bob Haber argued that inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than anticipated, challenging the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Morgan Stanley: Weak jobs data may prompt Fed rate cuts.
On September 15, 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted concerns over weak jobs data in the U.S., suggesting it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Global Economy
China's August industrial production, retail sales miss expectations.
On September 15, 2025, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that August industrial production increased by 5.2% year-on-year, retail sales increased by 3.4%, and fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year-on-year, all below market expectations.
Market Insights
India gold prices fluctuate; 24-carat at Rs. 1,11,050 per 10g.
On September 16, 2025, gold prices in India fluctuated, with 24-carat gold at Rs. 1,11,050 per 10 grams, a decrease from the previous day, while silver is at Rs. 132.90 per gram.
Nikkei continues rise, boosted by US tech stock gains.
On September 16, 2025, the Nikkei Stock Average in the Tokyo stock market started higher, rising over 200 yen, following gains in the US market, particularly in semiconductor-related stocks.
Indian stocks rise on US trade talks, Fed rate cut anticipation.
On September 16, 2025, Indian stock markets opened higher, with the Sensex rising over 100 points and the Nifty50 surpassing 25,100, driven by optimism from U.S. trade talks with China and India, and strong performance in auto stocks.
Ibovespa hits record high amid US rate cut optimism.
On September 15, 2025, the Ibovespa reached a new nominal closing high (143,547 points) and intraday high (144,194 points), driven by external optimism regarding expected US interest rate cuts.
European stocks rise amid Fed, BoE policy meeting anticipation.
On Monday, September 15, 2025, European stock markets rose slightly, starting the week with optimism ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
Nikkei rises on US tariff cuts, Fed rate cut expectations.
On September 16, 2025, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3% to 44,902.27, led by gains in automobile, precision instrument, and machinery stocks, boosted by US tariff cuts and expected Fed rate cuts.
US stocks climb ahead of Fed decision; Nvidia down, Tesla up.
On September 15, 2025, US stocks climbed as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's decision, with the Dow rising 0.2%, the S&P 500 increasing 0.3%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.45%.
Policy Watch
Peru's President backs 8th AFP withdrawal amid pension reform debate.
On September 14, 2025, President Dina Boluarte announced the Peruvian government's support for an eighth withdrawal of funds from the AFP, citing families' freedom to decide on their money. This decision follows protests against pension reforms.
Trump seeks removal of Lisa Cook from Federal Reserve.
On September 14, 2025, Donald Trump requested an appeals court to remove Lisa Cook from her position as a Federal Reserve governor.
Argentinians protest Milei's austerity with national 'cacerolazo'.
On September 15, 2025, citizens in Buenos Aires and other Argentinian provinces organized a national 'cacerolazo' at 9 PM during Javier Milei's national address to protest his austerity policies and budget cuts.
FOMC may see rare dissents; Deutsche Bank predicts multiple rate cuts.
On September 15, 2025, the FOMC meeting may see the first three-official dissent since 1988, with Deutsche Bank predicting rate cuts in September, October, and December.