AI Drives US Economic Growth; Potential US Strike on Venezuela Impacts Oil Markets
Key Takeaways
- AI is driving US economic growth despite data blackout, boosting business investment.
- US may strike Venezuela military sites, impacting oil; new sanctions loom over Russian oil.
- Canada and Australia collaborate on critical minerals to diversify supply chains away from China.
- Alphabet, Amazon Q3 profits boosted by increased value of their stakes in Anthropic PBC.
- Fed's Logan, Schmid disagree with rate cut, citing high inflation on October 30, 2025.
Top Stories
US: AI driving economic growth.
On October 31, 2025, Bloomberg reported that AI is driving US economic growth despite a government-induced data blackout, with business investment in equipment and software soaring.
US: Potential strike on Venezuela, impacting oil markets.
On October 31, 2025, reports suggested the US might strike Venezuela's military sites, potentially impacting oil markets and leading to regime change, while new sanctions loom over Russian oil companies. Natural gas prices surged due to colder weather forecasts.
Canada, Australia: Collaboration on critical minerals.
On October 31, 2025, Canada and Australia signed a declaration to collaborate on critical minerals, including joint investments and cross-processing of resources, to diversify supply chains away from China. The agreement promotes sharing best practices in ESG and low-carbon technologies.
Alphabet, Amazon: Q3 profits boosted by Anthropic stakes.
On October 31, 2025, Alphabet and Amazon reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits, boosted by increased value of their stakes in Anthropic PBC. Alphabet's profit included $10.7 billion in net gains, while Amazon's profit climbed 38%.
Fed: Dallas and Kansas City Presidents disagree with rate cut.
On October 30, 2025, Lorie Logan and Jeff Schmid expressed their disagreement with the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, arguing that inflation remains too high.
Energy Sector
ExxonMobil, Chevron: Lower Q3 earnings due to oil prices.
On October 31, 2025, ExxonMobil and Chevron reported lower third-quarter earnings due to declining crude oil prices, with ExxonMobil's profits down 12.3% to $7.5 billion and Chevron's down 21.1% to $3.5 billion.
Financial Analysis
Global Finance: Intensifying liquidity stress.
On October 31, 2025, GoldBroker.com reported intensifying liquidity stress in the global financial system, characterized by the SOFR exceeding the IOR rate and a massive increase in daily Repo market activity exceeding $3 trillion.
Inflation: Forecasts for Eurozone, US, and UK.
On 2025-10-31, ING economists forecast slightly lower inflation in the eurozone (1.9% in Q4 2026), continued disinflation in the US (to 2.2% by late 2026), and a drop to 2.5% in UK CPI by spring 2026.
Housing Market
US: Housing inequality to worsen before improving.
On October 31, 2025, a Bloomberg columnist argued that US housing inequality will worsen due to builders focusing on the luxury market, decreasing entry-level home construction.
Market Insights
Europe: Stocks slip despite resilient earnings.
On October 31, 2025, European stocks declined, trimming gains despite earnings and trade optimism, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling by 0.5%. Telecom and insurance sectors led the declines, while some banks saw gains.
Wall Street: Strong gains in October driven by AI and earnings.
On October 31, 2025, Wall Street saw strong gains in October, driven by AI optimism and solid earnings, marking six consecutive months of stock gains. The Federal Reserve sent a complex signal as risk assets surged.
Market: Risk-on sentiment supported by Fed and AI.
By the end of 2025, major investor fears concerning bond yields, trade wars, and Federal Reserve policy had not materialized, fostering a risk-on sentiment. Current strategies favor AI equities and hedges like gold and China stocks.
Barrons.com: Review of the week's financial news.
On October 31, 2025, Barrons.com reviewed the week's financial news, including a quasi trade deal, a Fed meeting, and earnings reports.
Policy Watch
Japan: Gasoline tax cut agreed by ruling and opposition parties.
On October 31, 2025, Japan's ruling and opposition parties agreed to abolish the provisional tax rate on gasoline by December 31. The government will respond based on the outcome of internal party procedures.
France: Pension reform suspended due to budget constraints.
In 2023, France raised the retirement age to 64, but as of October 28, 2025, the pension reform has been suspended due to budget issues for 2026, according to the new finance minister.
Jeremy Siegel: Fed will lower rates in December 2025.
On October 30, 2025, Jeremy Siegel said the Fed will lower rates in December 2025 if needed, discussing the Fed's interest rate decision and the state of the economy.
Tech Industry
Nvidia: CEO hopes to sell Blackwell chips to China.
On October 31, 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated he hopes to eventually sell the company's Blackwell chips to China, although there are no current plans to do so.