US and China Reach Trade Deal; Tariffs Temporarily Suspended
Key Takeaways
- US and China will suspend tariffs for 90 days, effective May 14, 2025.
- Goldman Sachs raised its yuan forecast to 7 per dollar, citing strong Chinese exports.
- A former PBOC Adviser expects a US-China deal within two weeks with tariffs below 30%.
- Trump plans to cut US drug costs, potentially by up to 80% via executive order.
- Saudi Arabia’s Flynas plans a $1.1 billion IPO, offering 30% of its share capital.
Top Stories
US-China trade talks show progress, tariffs lowered temporarily.
On May 11-12, 2025, the US and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products following "substantial progress" in trade talks in Geneva. This led to positive market reactions, including rising stock futures, a stronger dollar, and a shift away from safe-haven assets.
US, China to suspend tariffs for 90 days.
On May 12, 2025, reports indicated that the US and China will suspend part of their punitive tariffs for ninety days, effective May 14, 2025. The US will reduce tariffs on most imported Chinese products from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its tariffs on imported American products from 125% to 10%.
European stocks rise on US-China tariff agreement.
On May 12, 2025, European stocks increased after the US and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.9% by 10:42 a.m. in Paris, led by the mining, consumer, and automotive sectors.
Goldman Sachs raises yuan forecast amid trade negotiation hopes.
On May 12, 2025, Goldman Sachs lifted its yuan forecast to 7 per dollar over the next 12 months, citing strong Chinese exports and progress in US-China trade negotiations. The onshore yuan has risen 0.5% in May and is on track for its best monthly gain since January.
Former PBOC Adviser expects US-China deal in two weeks.
On May 12, 2025, a former PBOC Adviser predicted a US-China deal within two weeks. The deal is expected to include tariffs below 30%, a reduction in the trade imbalance, the lifting of key trade restrictions, and further negotiations starting next week.
Trump plans to cut US drug costs.
On May 12, 2025, President Donald Trump announced plans to cut US prescription drug costs by mandating that Americans pay no more than people in countries with the lowest prices. He stated he would sign an executive order at 9 a.m. on Monday in Washington to institute a most-favored nation policy, potentially cutting prices by up to 80%.
Drugmaker shares tumble on Trump's price cut plan.
Published on May 11, 2025, following President Trump's announcement of potential US drug price cuts of up to 80% on May 12, 2025, shares in drugmakers across Europe and Asia tumbled on Monday. Investors are concerned about the potential implications for the pharmaceutical market.
Saudi Arabia's Flynas plans $1.1 billion IPO.
On 2025-05-12, it was published that Saudi Arabia’s Flynas Co., backed by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, plans to raise up to 4.1 billion riyals ($1.1 billion) from its IPO. They are offering 51.26 million shares at 76 to 80 riyals apiece, representing about 30% of Flynas’ share capital.
Economic Trends
ECB to lower borrowing costs more than expected.
According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg and published on May 12, 2025, the European Central Bank will lower borrowing costs more than previously expected this year to below 2%. This is due to inflation undershooting the institution’s target in early 2026.
US losing financial hegemony, Euro gains opportunity.
In a chronique published 2025-05-11, economist Hélène Rey argues that the United States seems on the point of losing its hegemonic position on the international financial system. This presents a window of opportunity for the Euro, referencing Charles Kindleberger's theory of hegemonic stability.
Gold prices near record highs.
On 2025-05-12, it was published that Philip Diehl, president of US Money Reserve, and former director of the US Mint, discussed booming gold prices near record highs.
US economy concerns shift travel plans.
Published on May 12, 2025, Kristin Herman and her partner changed their travel plans from Europe to Oregon due to concerns about the US economy, opting for camping to save money.
Green Economy
EDP confident US will maintain renewable tax credits.
On May 12, 2025, EDP SA's CEO Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade expressed confidence that the US will maintain tax credits for renewable projects under President Donald Trump's administration.
Offers for hydrogen bus manufacturer Safra to be examined.
On 2025-05-11, it was reported that the Commercial Court of Albi will examine offers to take over Safra, the Albi-based hydrogen bus manufacturer, and its 169 employees on May 13.
Market Insights
Chinese, Asian stocks rise on US-China trade talk optimism.
On May 12, 2025, Chinese stocks and emerging-market assets rose following optimism about US-China trade discussions. The CSI 300 Index increased by 1.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by 1.6%, and a Bloomberg index of Asian EM equities gained over 1%.
Beijing's red lines for a US-China deal revealed.
As of May 12, 2025, Beijing's red lines for a US-China deal include no open attacks on China's economic or trade policy and no major restrictions aimed at choking off China's future development.
Beijing concerned about exchange rate stability.
As of May 12, 2025, Beijing is concerned about the stability of the exchange rate to prevent fast depreciation triggering capital flight. They are also willing to discuss US restrictions on computer chip exports, advocating for free trade.
Corporations fear supply shortages amid US-China tensions.
As of May 12, 2025, multinational corporations are concerned about supply shortages and potential operation stoppages if no substantial progress is made in US-China trade negotiations within two weeks.
Ideology, politics may hinder US-China trade deal.
As of May 12, 2025, potential roadblocks to a US-China trade deal include the US Congress and non-business community linking trade issues to ideology or politics. For example, proposing legislation linking the Taiwan issue to trade.
Japanese stocks slow after 11-day rally.
On May 11, 2025, Japanese stocks experienced a slowdown, with the Topix index nearly flat at 2,732.79 after an 11-day rally. This was influenced by a decline in drugmakers' stocks following US President Donald Trump's announcement of plans to cut drug prices.
Gold prices fall on trade talk progress.
Published on May 11, 2025, gold prices fell on May 12, 2025, as progress in US-China trade talks reduced its safe-haven appeal. Bullion fell as much as 1.8% in early trading in Asia to around $3,265 an ounce.
Business News
Trump's sons expand businesses in Gulf region.
On 2025-05-12, it was reported that Donald Trump's sons are expanding family businesses in the Gulf Arab region, including luxury towers. President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates from May 13-16.
Labor Market
Advocating for recognition of multiple job holdings.
On 2025-05-11, it was reported that Philippe Garabiol and Laurent Pietraszewski are advocating for better recognition of multiple job holdings.