Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Brazil

• Trump announces new tariffs of 15% and 50%: Former President Trump has set a basic tariff rate of 15% and a maximum of 50% for countries with which the U.S. has strained relations, including Brazil. This policy is seen as a political pressure tactic and has been criticized by Brazil at the WTO for destabilizing global trade. The new tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, 2025, and Brazil is attempting to negotiate to prevent their implementation.
• 50% tariff threatens Brazilian mango exports: The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian mango exports, jeopardizing the export of 77,000 tons of fruit. This tariff makes it economically unfeasible for Brazilian exporters to sell mangoes to the U.S., leading to potential oversupply and price drops in the domestic market.

Brazilian Market Reactions

• Ibovespa rises following Wall Street trends: The Ibovespa index closed higher, up 0.99% to 135,368.27 points, influenced by positive trends in Wall Street and commercial agreements involving the U.S. Petrobras shares increased by 2.04%, while WEG shares fell by 8% due to disappointing results. The financial volume was R$16.85 billion, below the monthly average.
• Petrobras expected to pay dividends despite profit drop: Petrobras (PETR4) is projected to pay dividends of US$ 2.2 billion for Q2 2025, despite a 20% drop in net profit to US$ 8 billion. The average oil price was US$ 67 per barrel, a 12% decrease from the previous quarter.

Trade Agreements and Economic Strategies

• U.S.-Japan trade agreement implications: The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the U.S., reflects Trump's strategy of using tariffs to negotiate better trade deals. This approach has generated significant revenue for the U.S. but poses challenges for countries like Brazil facing similar tariff pressures.
• France accepts Pix payments from Brazilian tourists: France has begun accepting Pix payments from Brazilian tourists, allowing transactions in Brazilian reais. This move is expected to boost purchases by Brazilian tourists in Paris, enhancing their travel experience and reducing currency exchange risks.

Economic Developments in Brazil

• Petrobras resumes fertilizer production: Petrobras announced plans to resume large-scale fertilizer production in Brazil, aiming to meet 35% of national urea demand by 2028. This initiative is expected to reduce Brazil's dependency on imported fertilizers and create thousands of jobs.
• Private equity firms see record asset sales: Private equity firms are increasingly using continuation funds to sell assets to themselves, totaling $41 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 60% increase from the previous year. This trend indicates a shift in investment strategies amid challenging market conditions.