Brazil Commits to Zero Deficit in 2025, Surplus in 2026; Pix Leads Payment Methods with 77% Adoption
Key Takeaways
- Brazil reaffirms zero deficit goal for 2025, aims for surplus in 2026.
- Pix dominates Brazil's payment landscape with 77% adoption, surpassing cash and cards.
- Ambipar files for judicial recovery with R$10.7 billion debt; Citi estimates R$2B with banks.
- Brazilian banks use AI to simplify WhatsApp money transfers for users.
- Brazil's soy complex exports projected to reach US$55.26B in 2026, up US$5B from 2025.
Top Stories
Brazil commits to zero deficit in 2025, surplus in 2026.
On October 22, 2025, the Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Dario Durigan, reiterated that the federal government will meet the zero primary deficit target in 2025 and seek a surplus in 2026. The target for next year is a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP.
Pix leads Brazil's payment methods with 77% adoption.
On October 22, 2025, a Zoop/PiniOn survey revealed that Pix is Brazil's most popular payment method, used by 77% of people, surpassing cash and cards. Mobile phones are the primary device for payments, used by 89% in physical stores and for most online purchases.
Ambipar files for judicial recovery with R$10.7 billion debt.
On October 21, 2025, Ambipar filed for judicial recovery, with a total debt of R$10.7 billion. Citi analysts estimate that approximately R$2 billion of this debt is with banks.
Brazilian banks use AI to simplify WhatsApp money transfers.
On October 22, 2025, banks in Brazil, including PicPay, Itaú Unibanco Holding SA, and Nubank, are utilizing generative AI to simplify money transfers via WhatsApp. This benefits over 90% of Brazilians who use WhatsApp.
Brazil soy complex exports projected at US$55.26B in 2026.
On October 22, 2025, Abiove projected that Brazil's soy complex exports (soybeans, meal, and oil) will reach US$55.26 billion in 2026, up US$5 billion from 2025. Exports of 111 million tons of grain are expected at US$46.07 billion.
Investment Flows
Goiás roadworks worth R$1.9B to resume after STF ruling.
On October 22, 2025, Ifag determined the immediate resumption of seven roadworks financed by Fundeinfra in Goiás, following an STF decision on October 21. The works, totaling R$1.9 billion, benefit 19 municipalities and approximately 9,600 rural enterprises.
Market Movers
US-Venezuela tensions pose risks to Brazilian assets: analyst.
On October 22, 2025, analyst Gustavo Cruz warned about the risks to Brazilian assets stemming from escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. He anticipates impacts on commodities, exchange rates, and risk perception.
Weg's Q3 net profit reaches R$1.65B, up 4.5% year-over-year.
On October 22, 2025, Weg announced a net profit of R$1.65 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 4.5% increase compared to the previous year. EBITDA was R$2.28 billion, up 2.3%, and net revenue reached R$10.27 billion, up 4.2%.
Policy Briefing
Operation Plush seizes R$4.3 million from PCC money laundering.
On October 22, 2025, Operation Plush seized R$4.3 million in assets linked to PCC money laundering in four toy stores across São Paulo, Guarulhos, and Santo André. The operation targeted the ex-wife and sister of deceased drug trafficker Claudio Marcos de Almeida.
Brazil splits fiscal measures into bills, aims for R$10.7B savings.
On October 21, 2025, the Brazilian government planned to divide fiscal adjustment measures into separate bills to ease congressional resistance. The strategy includes taxing bets and fintechs, aiming to save R$10.7 billion.
Brazil institutes reverse logistics for plastic packaging after industry pushback.
On October 21, 2025, the Lula government enacted a decree establishing a reverse logistics system for plastic packaging, holding manufacturers, importers, distributors, and retailers responsible. The decree sets recycling and reuse targets and aims to strengthen recycling cooperatives.
STF halts payroll tax exemption trial, R$20.23B risk in 2025.
On October 17, 2025, Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the STF suspended the trial regarding payroll tax exemptions, which already had three votes favoring gradual re-taxation between 2025 and 2027. The AGU warned of a potential R$20.23 billion loss in 2025 due to insufficient compensatory measures.
Brazil economic reforms: administrative, pension, labor prioritized.
On October 22, 2025, experts discussed the need for reforms in Brazil to boost economic growth and attract investments, prioritizing administrative reform, pension modernization, and labor relations.
Brazil launches tool for public policy self-assessment, aims at efficiency.
On October 22, 2025, the Ministry of Planning launched a tool for managers of over 600 federal public policies to conduct self-assessments and identify inefficiencies, aiming to cut expenses sustainably. Minister Fernando Haddad compared this approach to that of Javier Milei.
Ex-prosecutor questioned over R$11.9M fraud scheme.
On October 23, 2025, the CPMI of the INSS is hearing former Attorney General Virgílio Antônio Ribeiro de Oliveira Filho and his wife Thaisa Hoffmann Jonasson about a social security fraud scheme. He was removed in April 2025 after investigations pointed to illicit enrichment of R$11.9 million.
Brazil IRS to release October income tax refunds to 248,894 taxpayers.
The Receita Federal will open the consultation for the residual batch of October 2025 Income Tax refunds on October 24, with payments on October 31, covering 248,894 taxpayers (R$ 602.9 million).
Febraban: Proliferation of financial institutions increases money laundering risks.
On October 22, 2025, at the Febraban congress in São Paulo, Isaac Sidney criticized the proliferation of financial institutions vulnerable to money laundering due to market opening. He demanded rigorous supervision from the BC for all institutions.
Social Safety Net
Poverty in Tocantins: families struggle with Bolsa Família, recycling.
On October 22, 2025, a report highlighted the struggles of Roseane da Silva, a mother of ten in Palmas, Tocantins, who relies on Bolsa Família and recycling to survive. Four in ten Tocantins residents live on a minimum wage, reflecting social inequality.
Brazil unifies Bolsa Família, gas aid in Rio Grande do Sul.
On October 22, 2025, the MDS unified payments for Bolsa Família and Auxílio Gás in Rio Grande do Sul, allowing immediate withdrawals for over 223,000 households in the first program and 66,000 in the second. A total of R$168.7 million was distributed in October.
Trade Winds
US ranchers criticize Trump's Argentina beef import suggestion.
On October 20, 2025, American cattle ranchers criticized Donald Trump for suggesting importing beef from Argentina to lower record high prices in the US. Trump defended his tariffs on Brazil, which he said saved the producers.
Arco Norte projects aim to boost agricultural exports from Midwest.
Projects to expand agricultural outputs from the Midwest via Arco Norte are underway, focusing on the Madeira, Tapajós, and Araguaia-Tocantins waterways. These routes offer shorter alternatives to the ports of the South and Southeast.
US seeks access to Brazil's rare earth minerals, Alckmin says.
On October 21, 2025, Geraldo Alckmin stated that the United States is pressing for access to Brazil's rare earth minerals and strategic minerals. He highlighted Brazil's potential in this area and opportunities for cooperation in clean energy.