Ibovespa Reaches Record High; House Approves Property Value Update Bill
Key Takeaways
- Ibovespa hits record high, nearing 150,000; JPMorgan predicts 155,000 by year-end.
- House approves bill 458/21 to update property values, aiming to generate R$25 billion.
- Brazil's trade balance records US$1.767 billion surplus in October's fourth week; US$50.407 billion YTD.
- Axia Energia acquires Juno Participações for R$247 million, gaining full ownership of Três Irmãos plant.
- USTR investigates Pix, other Brazilian practices, potentially limiting bilateral trade under Section 301.
Top Stories
Ibovespa hits record high, JPMorgan strategists predict further gains.
On October 29, 2025, the Ibovespa reached a new record, rising almost 1% and approaching 150,000 points, while the dollar closed stable at R$ 5.358. JPMorgan strategists indicated potential for the Ibovespa to reach 155,000 points by year-end, driven by factors including falling inflation and cuts in the Selic.
House approves bill on property value updates, fiscal measures.
The Chamber of Deputies approved bill 458/21 on October 29, 2025, facilitating property value updates and incorporating fiscal measures, aiming to generate R$25 billion for the government. The bill, which includes the Rearp, now goes to the Senate after a vote of 286 to 146.
Brazil's trade balance records a surplus.
In the fourth week of October 2025, the Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of US$1.767 billion, with exports of US$6.803 billion and imports of US$5.036 billion. The accumulated surplus from January to October 2025 is US$50.407 billion.
Axia Energia acquires Juno Participações for R$247 million.
On October 29, 2025, Axia Energia acquired Juno Participações e Investimentos for R$247 million, gaining 100% ownership of the Três Irmãos hydroelectric plant. The plant has an installed capacity of 808 MW and generated R$320 million in revenue in 2024.
USTR investigation on Pix and other Brazilian practices.
On October 29, 2025, the USTR investigation under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act on Pix and other Brazilian practices is seen as a potential tool for the US to limit bilateral trade. The US government initiated meetings with American companies affected by tariffs imposed on Brazil.
Debt & Finance
77.8 million Brazilians are in debt.
On October 29, 2025, the 2025 Collection Yearbook revealed that 77.8 million Brazilians are in debt, an increase of 15 million in five years. The average debt is R$6,200, and most debtors are between 41 and 65 years old.
Economic Growth Pulse
Vacancy rate of logistics warehouses in Brazil drops to 7%.
On October 29, 2025, it was reported that the vacancy rate of logistics warehouses in Brazil fell to 7%, according to Colliers, a reduction of 2 percentage points compared to 2024. A rate below 8% indicates a rise in prices, despite difficulties for new developments.
Government & Legal
Government challenges Refit refinery activities; Lindbergh Farias sues Rio governor.
On October 28, 2025, the Lula government appealed to the STJ to annul the release of Refinaria de Manguinhos (Refit) activities. On October 30, 2025, Lindbergh Farias filed a lawsuit against Rio de Janeiro's governor, Cláudio Castro, requesting his removal from office.
Federal Police operation against INSS fraud.
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Police in Maranhão conducted an operation in Caxias, executing a search and seizure warrant against a suspect of defrauding INSS benefits. The suspect maintained two active identities, receiving retirement for age and disability simultaneously.
Healthcare Costs
Brazil faces high costs due to stroke.
On October 29, 2025, World Stroke Day, a study revealed that Brazil faces high costs in lives and productivity due to stroke, with 1.68 million hospitalizations and 484,300 deaths between 2017 and 2023. The study highlights regional inequalities and emphasizes prevention.
Inflation Watch
Health plan adjustments accumulate 383.5% between 2015 and 2025.
Between 2015 and 2025, adjustments in collective health plans accumulated 383.5%, affecting 83% of the 53 million beneficiaries in Brazil. Companies face higher costs, representing 15.8% of the payroll, with a projected medical inflation of 12.9%.
Investment Flows
Meeting to accelerate STS-10 auction in Santos Port.
On October 29, 2025, Minister Silvio Costa Filho announced a meeting to accelerate the STS-10 auction in the Port of Santos, aiming for deliberation by November 12 and the auction on December 22, 2025. The Antaq model divides the auction into stages to foster competition.
Market Movers
Ibovespa rises on Trump-Xi Jinping meeting.
On October 29, 2025, the confirmation of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping boosted Brazilian assets, with the Ibovespa rising 0.77% to 148,561 points. The market is also awaiting decisions from the Federal Reserve and the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, while the dollar falls.
Policy Briefing
House approves bill for collective actions against Bolsa companies.
On October 29, 2025, the Chamber of Deputies approved a bill allowing collective actions by investors against Bolsa companies, with 275 votes in favor. The proposal aims to reform the civil liability system for administrators and expand investor protection, creating a mechanism similar to US class actions.
Bill approved to remove budget limitation for Defeso insurance.
On October 30, 2025, deputies approved a change to Project Law 458/21 to remove the budget limitation for the payment of Defeso insurance. The measure aims to ensure that fishermen who meet the criteria receive the benefit, and the project returns to the Senate for a new vote.
Brazil's COP30 president announces finance package; Lula to rent luxury yacht.
On October 30, 2025, Brazil's COP30 president announced plans for a finance package to boost adaptation funding for developing countries at the November 10-21 summit in Belem. President Lula has decided to rent a luxury yacht in Belém for lodging during the COP30 conference.
IBP criticizes changes in oil price calculation.
On October 29, 2025, the IBP criticized a section of Senator Eduardo Braga's opinion on MP 1.304, alleging that the proposed change in the reference price calculation for oil royalties and special participations brings regulatory insecurity and may discourage investments.
Municipal Sustainable Transition Capacity Index launched.
On October 29, 2025, the Municipal Sustainable Transition Capacity Index was launched to assess the preparedness of Brazilian cities for the low-carbon economy. The index synthesizes socioeconomic vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities.
Government approves expense cut project.
On October 29, 2025, the Chamber of Deputies approved the base text of a project to cut expenses, limiting Seguro Defeso and sickness benefits, in addition to altering social security compensations and introducing a wealth regularization program. The goal is to offset a budget deficit of R$30 billion.