Dollar Falls After Lula-Trump Meeting; Equatorial Margin Exploration Could Add R$419B to Brazil's GDP
Key Takeaways
- Dollar falls to R$ 5.36 after Lula-Trump meeting amid tariff agreement hopes.
- Equatorial Margin exploration could add R$419B to Brazil's GDP, says Petrobras manager.
- Ex-Central Bank president Loyola warns of Brazil's growing fiscal risk and public account degradation.
- B3 receives R$931 million tax assessment from Federal Revenue regarding tax losses.
- Import tax causes 38% of consumers to abandon international sites, CNI reports.
Top Stories
Dollar falls to R$ 5.36 after Lula-Trump meeting, inflation slows.
On October 27, 2025, the dollar opened sharply lower at R$ 5.3645 after a meeting between Presidents Lula and Trump, driven by expectations of a tariff agreement and a slowdown in Brazilian inflation (IPCA-15 at 0.18% in October).
Equatorial Margin exploration could add R$419B to Brazil's GDP.
On October 27, 2025, Petrobras manager Daniele Lomba stated that exploration of the Equatorial Margin could add R$ 419 billion to Brazil's GDP and generate 2.1 million jobs.
Ex-Central Bank president warns of Brazil's growing fiscal risk.
On October 27, 2025, Gustavo Loyola, former president of the Central Bank, criticized the Brazilian political class for its "blindness" to the growing fiscal risk and the degradation of public accounts.
B3 receives R$931 million tax assessment from Federal Revenue.
On October 27, 2025, B3 (B3SA3) reported receiving a tax assessment from the Federal Revenue regarding the years 2021 and 2022, questioning the use of tax losses from the amortization of goodwill, totaling R$ 674 million and R$ 257 million related to IRPJ and CSLL.
Import tax causes 38% of consumers to abandon international sites.
In October 2025, the CNI reported that 38% of consumers abandoned purchases on international sites due to the Import Tax, an increase from 13% in May 2024. The 'taxa das blusinhas' increased the number of people seeking similar products with national delivery from 22% to 32%.
Economic Growth Pulse
Focus Bulletin: Inflation expectations reduced, GDP growth revised down.
On October 27, 2025, the Central Bank's Focus Bulletin showed reduced inflation expectations for the IPCA to 4.56% for 2025 and 4.20% for 2026. GDP growth was revised down to 2.16% for 2025 and 1.78% for 2026.
Brazil construction growth forecast cut to 1.3% due to interest rates.
On October 27, 2025, Cbic (Brazilian Construction Industry Confederation) reduced its growth projection for the construction sector in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.3%, citing the negative impact of high interest rates.
Financial Crime Watch
CPMI do INSS to hear testimony on financial fraud.
On October 28, 2025, the CPMI do INSS will hear testimony from Domingos Sávio de Castro and Henrique Traugott Binder Galvão regarding financial relationships and flights related to alleged fraud affecting millions of retirees.
Febraban strengthens rules to combat financial crime, 'contas laranja'.
On October 27, 2025, Febraban implemented stricter self-regulation to combat organized crime in the banking sector. The new rules mandate immediate cancellation of 'contas laranja' and accounts used by irregular online betting companies.
Court releases Manguinhos refinery after ANP interdiction for fraud.
On October 27, 2025, a judge ordered the release of the Manguinhos refinery in Rio de Janeiro, which had been shut down since September 26 by the ANP and Receita Federal due to suspected fraud in fuel import and sales, involving over 90 million liters.
Healthcare Innovation
Blood test diagnoses Alzheimer's with 96% accuracy in Brazil.
On October 27, 2025, a study in Molecular Psychiatry showed that a blood test, validated in Brazil by UFRGS researchers, can diagnose Alzheimer's with 96% accuracy. The test costs around R$ 800.
Investment Flows
Mercado Livre invests R$100M in November discount coupons.
On October 27, 2025, Mercado Livre announced a R$100 million investment in discount coupons for November promotional events, including Black Friday. This is amidst competition with Shopee (R$36 million) and Casas Bahia (R$1.2 billion).
Reforma Casa Brasil offers loans up to R$9,600 for home improvements.
Starting November 3, 2025, families with a gross monthly income of up to R$ 9,600.00 in urban areas of Brazil can join the Reforma Casa Brasil program. The program offers loans for home improvements through Caixa Econômica Federal.
Event debates infrastructure investments in Bahia and Northeast Brazil.
On October 28, 2025, an event in Salvador, Brazil, gathered authorities, businessmen, and specialists to debate public and private investments in infrastructure in Bahia and the Northeast region, and their economic impacts.
New phase of Growth Acceleration Program launched in Rio favelas.
On October 28, 2025, the new phase of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), known as Novo PAC das Favelas, was launched in Rio de Janeiro, covering favelas such as Maré and Complexo do Alemão. The program involves investments of R$ 200 million in Complexo do Alemão and R$ 170 million in Maré.
Market Movers
Febraban denies pressuring Central Bank on Banco Master case.
On October 27, 2025, Febraban denied pressuring the Central Bank regarding the Banco Master case, contradicting reports that it was trying to accelerate collections. Banco Master seeks alternatives to avoid BC intervention.
Policy Briefing
Brazil may shelve PLP and MP due to opposition, fiscal concerns.
On October 27, 2025, the Brazilian government is considering shelving the PLP and MP due to opposition pressure and amendments. The PLP aims to remove expenses from tariff increases from fiscal targets, while the MP creates credit lines for exporters affected by US tariffs.
Brazil aims to remove R$20B ceiling from Pé-de-Meia student aid.
On October 27, 2025, the government is seeking to remove the R$ 20 billion ceiling from the Pé-de-Meia program to avoid cuts in the student aid program during an election year. A device was included in the metanol project to make the program perenne.
Budget cut threatens Brazil's rural insurance program, soy crop.
On October 27, 2025, a R$ 354.6 million cut in the budget for the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR) threatens the next soybean harvest in Brazil. The insured area is expected to fall to less than 3 million hectares.
Banning hand luggage fees may hurt low-cost airlines in Brazil.
On October 28, 2025, Pedro Doria discusses how the proposal to prevent charging for hand luggage in Brazil could harm the entry of low-cost airlines. He argues that the freedom to charge extras has helped reduce airfares since 2000.
INSS starts payment of benefits, up to R$ 8,157.41.
On October 27, 2025, the INSS began paying benefits and aid for CPF numbers ending in 0 to 9, with values that can reach R$ 8,157.41. The maximum value corresponds to the INSS ceiling.
Social Challenges
Brazil among eight hungriest in South America, GHI 2025 shows.
On October 27, 2025, the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2025 revealed that Brazil is among the eight hungriest countries in South America, with 6.4 points, while Bolivia leads with 14.6 points.
Trade Winds
Brazil advised to avoid early tariff concessions to the United States.
On October 28, 2025, former ambassador Rubens Barbosa advised Brazil to avoid making early concessions to the United States in tariff negotiations. He emphasized that Brazil should wait to understand Washington's intentions.