Australian Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall; RBA Shifts Focus to Global Risks
Key Takeaways
- Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in April, impacting interest rate cut expectations.
- RBA shifts focus to tariff, geopolitical risks after prioritizing inflation for three years.
- US corporate profits slumped $118B in Q1, signaling potential economic slowdown.
- UK business confidence hits nine-month high due to market recovery and easing trade tensions.
- Poland's 14.8% gas tariff cut is projected to decrease inflation, potentially leading to rate cuts.
Top Stories
Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in April
On May 30, 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that retail sales in Australia declined by 0.1% in April, a surprise against the anticipated 0.3% increase, leading traders to expect a third interest rate cut this year.
RBA shifts focus to tariff, geopolitical risks
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now prioritizing economic risks from tariffs and geopolitical issues after focusing on inflation for three years; Governor Michele Bullock is visiting China to discuss these issues with senior officials.
US corporate profits slumped $118B in Q1
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that US corporate profits experienced a significant decrease of $118 billion in the first quarter.
UK business confidence hits nine-month high
On May 29, 2025, a report indicated that UK business confidence reached its highest level in nine months, rebounding to levels last seen shortly after Prime Minister Keir Starmer assumed office, driven by market recovery and easing trade tensions with the US.
Poland's gas tariff cut to lower inflation
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that Poland's decision to reduce gas-price tariffs by 14.8% starting in July is projected to decrease inflation, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts by the central bank.
Central Bank Actions
Economists urge ECB: Don't delay rate cuts
On May 30, 2025, Bloomberg reported that economists are advising the ECB to proceed with the expected two interest rate cuts, based on a recent survey.
RBNZ awaits trade impact before OCR decision
On May 30, 2025, Karen Silk from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that the RBNZ needs more time to assess how global trade uncertainties will affect the local economy before deciding on the Official Cash Rate.
Goldman's Kaplan: Fed might not cut rates this year
On May 29, 2025, Goldman Sachs' Kaplan suggested that the Federal Reserve might not implement any interest rate cuts this year.
Commodity Prices
Oil prices declined amid OPEC+ supply concerns
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that oil prices decreased due to concerns about OPEC+ supply outweighing the impact of tariff relief.
Financial Health
Australian private capital investment fell in Q1
On May 30, 2025, reports indicated that Australian private capital investment decreased in the first quarter, contrary to expectations of growth, and construction work remained flat, missing projected increases.
Turkey's Q1 economic growth below expectations: 1%
On May 30, 2025, data from the state statistics office revealed that Turkey's economy grew by 1% in the first quarter, falling short of the anticipated 1.2%.
Kenyan inflation below target for 12th month
On May 30, 2025, it was announced that Kenya's annual inflation remained below the central bank’s 5% target for the 12th consecutive month, with consumer prices rising 3.8% in May.
Market Overview
Stocks trade sideways despite Nvidia, tariff ruling
On May 29, 2025, despite positive results from Nvidia and a ruling against President Trump's tariffs, stocks traded sideways due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade war.
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise on Nvidia earnings
On May 29, 2025, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased as investors responded favorably to Nvidia's earnings report and considered the legal challenges associated with tariffs. The Dow was up 0.1%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.6% after an earlier decline.
Business News
Hormel Foods tightens profit forecast on weak demand
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that Hormel Foods is narrowing its annual profit forecast due to soft retail demand.
Emerging Trends
CEO pay rose nearly 10% in 2024
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that CEO compensation increased by almost 10% in 2024, driven by rising stock prices and profits.
Global Trade
Best Buy cuts guidance due to Trump's tariffs
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that Best Buy's stock value decreased after the company lowered its financial outlook, citing the impact of tariffs.
Agilent prepares for potential US-EU tariff increase
On May 29, 2025, it was announced that Agilent is preparing for a possible increase in US-EU tariffs while maintaining its annual forecast.
Academy Sports and Outdoors affected by tariffs
On May 29, 2025, it was reported that Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is being impacted by Trump’s tariffs.
Tech Innovations
Nvidia stock up 4.2% on AI outlook
On May 29, 2025, Nvidia stock experienced a 4.2% increase, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose by 0.8%, fueled by a positive outlook for AI stocks.