IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast; German Private Sector Shrinks Amid Tariff Concerns

Economy News
Total 976 words · 4 mins read

Key Takeaways

  • IMF warns US tariffs threaten global growth, forecasting 2.8% in 2025, 3% in 2026.
  • Germany's private sector unexpectedly shrinks due to tariff concerns, services activity drops.
  • Trump intends to be "very nice" to China on trade, tariffs may decrease.
  • Emerging market stocks rise as confidence erodes in US equities amid trade war.
  • Russia's oil exports rebound to 3.21 million barrels/day as of April 20.

Top Stories

IMF: US tariffs threaten global growth, recession risk

On April 22, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued multiple warnings and forecasts concerning the impact of US trade policies. The IMF cut UK growth prospects, lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% and 2026 to 3%, and warned of increased chances of a global recession due to the US-led trade war uncertainty, also stating that the trade war escalation could cause losses for China and the US, worsening after 2026.

German private sector unexpectedly shrinks on tariff concerns

On April 23, 2025, it was reported that Germany’s private sector unexpectedly shrank for the first time in four months due to concerns over tariffs, which triggered a sharp drop in services activity.

Trump intends to be 'very nice' to China on trade

President Donald Trump stated on April 23, 2025, his intention to be "very nice" to China in trade negotiations and indicated that tariffs would decrease if a deal is reached.

Emerging market stocks rise on US equity concerns

On April 23, 2025, emerging market stocks rose, recouping their losses for the year, as investors expect the asset class to benefit from eroding confidence in US equities. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained as much as 1.7%, with South Korea’s Kospi gauge recovering its drop seen in the wake of US reciprocal tariffs.

Russia's oil exports rebound to 3.21 million barrels/day

On April 20, 2025, it was reported on April 23, 2025, that Russia's oil exports rebounded to 3.21 million barrels a day in the four weeks leading up to April 20, recovering about one-quarter of the losses seen over the previous three weeks.

Economic Trends

US economic uncertainty high; -0.1% growth forecast

On April 22, 2025, Constance Hunter highlighted exceptionally high economic uncertainty in the US, exceeding levels seen during past recessions, attributed to the president's trade policies. The forecast is for -0.1% growth in 2025, with concerns raised about the bond market.

Dollar to remain reserve currency despite tariff upheaval

On 2025-04-22, Barclays Plc CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan stated that the US dollar will remain the world’s only reserve currency, despite economic upheaval from the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

Trade Tensions

US, China tariff dispute 'unsustainable,' de-escalation needed

On April 22, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the ongoing tariff dispute with China is unsustainable and both countries need to de-escalate the situation at a closed-door investor summit. The report was published on the same day.

US, India resume trade talks amid tariff threats

On April 21, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US Vice President J. D. Vance relaunched negotiations on a possible trade agreement between the United States and India. The American government is threatening India with reciprocal tariffs of 26% due to India's protectionist economic model. The news was published on April 22, 2025.

US film industry criticizes European cultural exception

On 2025-04-22, American film industry representatives criticized the European cultural exception, a policy giving European culture special status in free trade agreements. The US administration is pushing back against European regulations supporting European content, arguing they disadvantage American tech companies.

Commodity Focus

China's copper demand surprisingly resilient amid price slumps

On April 23, 2025, Bloomberg News reported that China's copper demand has been surprisingly resilient. Buyers are acquiring supplies due to price slumps, with Xiao Qianjun from Jiangxi Copper Co. noting a tight copper market and a surge in spot orders.

US tariffs to negatively impact short-term copper market

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co. warned in a report published on April 22, 2025, that US tariffs will negatively impact the short-term copper market, citing effects on global economic growth and lower industrial demand.

London copper prices rise on US-China trade signals

On April 23, 2025, copper prices in London rose to around $9,450 a ton, following a 2% rise on Tuesday. This occurred as the US signaled a more conciliatory tone toward China in the trade war.

Energy & Resources

IEA: Oil demand up, but production may pressure prices

On 2025-04-23, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that oil demand is expected to increase about 700,000 barrels per day this year, and production growth is significantly higher, potentially leading to downward pressure on oil prices.

Saudi food firms prepare for share sales amid oil concerns

On 2025-04-22, it was reported that several Saudi Arabian food and beverage firms, including Coffee chain Half Million and biscuit-maker Deemah, are preparing for new share sales, amid concerns about lower oil prices.

Market Insights

Chinese firms issue record dollar, euro bonds

Bloomberg reported on April 22, 2025, that Chinese corporate and government borrowers have pushed issuance of dollar and euro bonds to a record proportion of all such note sales in emerging markets this month, accounting for 49% of such deals in April.

Policy Watch

Trump's stance on Powell impacts markets, dollar advances

On April 21, 2025, Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and threatened to remove him, which impacted financial markets. On April 22, 2025, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that President Donald Trump's threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have significantly impacted financial markets, and the dollar advanced against its major peers after Trump said he had no intention of firing Powell, climbing the most against the yen and Swiss franc.

Trump admin signals economic orthodoxy amid market panic

On April 22, 2025, the Trump administration, including Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, announced measures suggesting a return to economic orthodoxy amidst a global financial market panic. Trump stated he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the end of his term in 2026, and Musk announced plans to reduce his involvement in the DOGE (budget cuts department) starting in May.

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