Inflation Expectations Surge to 3.6%; Unemployment Concerns Rise to April 2020 High
Key Takeaways
- Consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.6%, the highest since October 2023.
- Unemployment worries surged to 44%, the highest level since April 2020.
- Stock market expectations declined to 33.8%, the lowest since June 2022.
- Consumer sentiment hits highest since 1981, indicating strong optimism.
- UK employment falls significantly, marking the largest drop since the pandemic.
Top Stories
Consumer inflation expectations rise to 3.6%
On 2025-04-14, the central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that respondents anticipate inflation to be at 3.6% a year from now. This is a 0.5 percentage point increase from February and the highest reading since October 2023.
Unemployment worries surge to April 2020 high
On 2025-04-14, the Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated increased concerns about the labor market. The probability of a higher unemployment rate in a year rose to 44%, the highest level since April 2020.
Stock market expectations decline to June 2022 low
On 2025-04-14, reports indicated that the Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a decline in stock market expectations. The expectation that the market will be higher in a year decreased to 33.8%, the lowest since June 2022.
Consumer sentiment hits highest since 1981
A report published on 2025-04-14 mentioned that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed one-year expectations in mid-April 2025 at their highest since November 1981.
UK employment falls significantly before tax hike
On 2025-04-15, it was reported that UK employment experienced a significant drop, marking the most substantial decline since the pandemic, occurring just before a tax increase.
Economic Trends
Long-term inflation expectations edge lower
According to a report published on 2025-04-14, expectations for inflation at the five-year horizon edged lower to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The three-year outlook remained unchanged at 3%.
Dubai property market faces economic challenges
Published on 2025-04-14, an article discusses the challenges facing Dubai's property market rally. These challenges stem from potential economic factors, including falling oil prices and the impact of tariffs.
Market Insights
Gold prices steady amid trade war concerns
On 2025-04-15, reports indicated that gold prices are holding steady just below record levels. This stability occurs amidst growing concerns about a potential trade war, which is a key factor influencing the gold market.
Trade talks, tariffs, and market unease discussed
On 2025-04-14, Scott Bessent discussed trade talks, the future of Powell, Argentina, and the dollar. The IMF announced a $20 billion agreement with Argentina, leading to currency adjustments. Shifts in tariff policies have made markets uneasy, with the president commenting that the bond market was 'queasy'.
Corporate Finance
Sunac seeks to convert offshore bonds into shares
On 2025-04-15, it was reported that builder Sunac is seeking to convert all of its offshore bonds into shares.
Hong Kong Airport seeks $2.6 billion loan
According to a report published on 2025-04-15, Hong Kong Airport is seeking a $2.6 billion loan. This follows the airport's recent success in issuing bonds.
Currency Watch
Rand gains value as political risk decreases
Published on 2025-04-14, an article reports that the Rand is gaining value. This increase in value is attributed to decreasing political risk in South Africa.